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At first, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer in case Putin persisted blocking ceasefire discussions, he finally enacted considerable penalties on the Russian biggest energy firms, these major energy companies. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Invasion

This initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal actually compromise that very autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, as if ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to destroy it so it no longer serves as an attractive standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in position the presently split regions of these areas, the plan would compel Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he eventually choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the initiative places no similar constraints on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as radicals, Trump's plan declares: "Every radical doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the initiative threatens a "immediate unified armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars vary from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his reduced troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Response

A separate side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But different from a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to react through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not