Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.